Installers ready for heat pumps, but opportunities lag

Baxi’s 2026 skills survey finds more installers are building heat-pump skills, but low demand and plentiful conventional heating work are slowing the switch. 

60% of installers are developing heat-pump competencies or plan to. The share actively developing skills doubled to 8% on 2025, and those definitely planning to rose by 10%. Only 8% ruled it out while 25% of those surveyed were unsure. 

More than 10,650 people completed MCS-aligned training through the Heat Training Grant in its first two years. Even so, only 5% of installers are already fitting air source heat pumps (ASHPs), and those likely to transition fell. 

Deployment remains subdued with MCS reporting that installations are down 17% year on year as of June 2026, with just over 25,000 in the first half. The reduced Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding for 2027–2030, announced in the 28 October Autumn Budget, removes around 100,000 heat pumps from eligibility if current grants stay unchanged. 

Concerns over policy, administration, training and accreditation fell considerably, but lack of demand remained the top barrier, with customers worried about cost and disruption. Meanwhile conventional heating remains a dependable source of work. Most respondents reported that they had enough or more than enough work. More reported surplus work in 2026, while fewer wanted more business. 

Ian Trott, head of UK training solutions at Baxi, commented, “Installers are on the front line with customers. They’re the people answering questions, challenging misconceptions and giving homeowners the confidence to make the switch. If government is serious about accelerating heat pump adoption, it should be asking how it can better harness that installer network and turn a trained workforce into a powerful driver of demand.” 

60% of the smaller ASHP installer sample reported increased customer interest over the past year, almost three times the level among other installers. Greater consumer choice, including hybrids, was their leading measure for encouraging participation. 

Among JTL apprentices surveyed, 83% were very or fairly optimistic about their careers, though 67% said political debate on net zero made the industry’s direction hard to understand. 

Last year’s survey reported that installers were warming to heat pumps, but demand is holding them back.